Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)1 have historically been characterized by relatively young populations. But recently, declining birth rates and rising life expectancies have been fundamentally restructuring these countries’ population pyramids. In the coming decades, the number of older people in LMICs is expected to more than double to 1.3 billion by 2050, accounting for around 60 percent of global growth in this demographic over the next 25 years.2
As life expectancy increases, the burden of age-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), including cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), diabetes, and kidney diseases, is expected to rise alongside it.3 CVDs continue to be the leading cause of death globally, accounting for more than 31 percent of worldwide deaths—over 75 percent of which occur outside of HICs (Exhibit 1).4
Similarly, about 40 percent of deaths linked to diabetes and kidney disease occur in low-income countries (LICs) and LMICs, compared with only 22 percent in high-income countries5 (Exhibit 2).
Many healthcare ecosystems in LMICs continue to be ill-equipped to handle the growing burden of NCDs across expanding populations of older people, and to date, donors and private capital have not sufficiently focused on addressing the NCD burden in developing countries. Looking ahead, the efforts of public, private, and social sector stakeholders must evolve to create a more integrated and sustainable health ecosystem that can effectively manage the rising burden of disease. Stakeholders must embrace forward-looking strategies that bridge current care gaps and build resilient health systems equipped to handle future health challenges.
