The future of Ohio: Playing to win in the next economy

Our commitment to the state of Ohio is deep and personal. For more than 60 years, McKinsey has been a proud partner in Ohio’s journey, working alongside leaders across the public, private, and social sectors. With our established office in Cleveland and our recently opened office in Columbus, our roots here are not just a matter of business; they reflect a long-term partnership grounded in a shared history and a profound belief in the state’s potential. This report, The future of Ohio: Playing to win in the next economy, is born from that enduring commitment and our desire to contribute to a prosperous future for all Ohioans.

We believe Ohio stands at a critical juncture. While we have made tremendous progress as a state, there is more work to do to translate that progress into durable growth amid the disruptions now taking place. In a global economy being reshaped by geopolitical dynamics, technological advancement and new competitive forces, the state has a precious opportunity to solidify its position in the economy of the 21st century. This report is an invitation to continue a statewide dialogue about how Ohio can leverage its unique strengths—from its industrial heritage to its growing innovation hubs—to not only compete but also win in this new era. It is also a call to action for us as leaders, especially us Ohioans, to move with intention and focus and to strengthen the bold spirit that has long defined the Buckeye State.

Economic value in the coming decades is likely to be led by growth and dynamism in several global arenas of competition. We strongly believe that Ohio has a “right to win” in several of these, based on its strengths across human capital, geographic assets, established sector platforms, and proven formulas for public–private partnership. However, success is not predetermined. It requires bold, deliberate, and collaborative leadership.

As we look to the future, our hope is to help build a more sustainable and inclusive Ohio. This mission is personal for us. This report provides an analytical perspective on economic trends, opportunities, and potential scenarios for Ohio. While decisions regarding economic development priorities, public policy, and investment remain the responsibility of public and private sector leaders, we offer this report as a starting point for that essential dialogue and reaffirm our steadfast commitment to partnering with leaders across the state on the journey ahead.

• Ohio has momentum, but the next era raises the stakes. The state faces an urgent choice: Act decisively to become an innovation leader, or risk losing competitive ground to states making bolder choices amid major economic shifts.
• Three bold goals can make that choice tangible. Ohio can pursue the following: growth that places Ohio among the top five US states, durable population gains that reverse demographic headwinds and outmigration, and shared prosperity measured by real progress for residents across every region and demographic group, with top ten workforce participation nationally.
• Ohio has made clear progress, but there is more to do. Despite its position as the nation’s seventh-largest economy, its increasingly diversified base, and its growth in priority sectors, Ohio’s economy-wide GDP growth is projected to underperform many peers; demographic headwinds and the outmigration of educated workers heighten the risk that the state remains broadly capable but insufficiently distinctive. The challenge is not whether Ohio has momentum but whether it can concentrate it in the sectors, places, and capabilities most needed to drive growth during the next decade.
• Disruption is here. The global economy is being reshaped by two powerful forces: the rise of new, high growth “competitive arenas” and the transformative potential of AI, which will redefine the nature of work and jobs in the state (with nearly 60 percent of work hours theoretically automatable by existing technologies).
• High-potential sectors present a clear path to victory. Ohio has a “right to win” in specific arenas, but it requires sustaining momentum in strongholds such as energy storage and e-commerce, investing to avoid stagnation in areas such as future air mobility, and making strategic bets on high-potential arenas including the semiconductor infrastructure stack (fabrication plants, data centers, and power generation). In this report, the “right to win” means more than aspiration: It means pursuing demonstrated specialization, growth momentum, investable projects, talent depth, and scaling those advantages across more than one Ohio region.
• Ohio needs to accelerate. As disruption grows, Ohio’s challenge is to convert its assets and investment into future capacity fast enough. Ohio ranks fifth in CNBC’s 2025 ranking of the top states for business but scores lower on measures of investment, ranking eighth among states in private nonresidential construction spending and 16th in R&D spending. Ohio has the ingredients to accelerate, and strengthening investment will help.
• Ohio must take bold action. To secure its future, Ohio should move quickly and intentionally. Success requires a coordinated strategy that mobilizes investment in key arenas, prepares the workforce for an AI-driven future, and prioritizes inclusive prosperity for all its residents. The strategy should also be statewide, combining the industrial, research, logistics, aerospace, healthcare, and bioscience assets of Central, Northeast, Southwest, Northwest, Western, and Appalachian Ohio.

Ohio is no ordinary state. It has a proud legacy at the center of “making America.” From the heart of the Midwest, it rose to a position of prominence as a powerhouse of manufacturing, logistics, and natural resources. Some of the world’s greatest innovators, pioneers, and leaders called Ohio home, from the Wright brothers to Thomas Edison, John Glenn, Neil Armstrong, and seven US presidents. Its values shaped influential leaders such as Harriet Beecher Stowe, John D. Rockefeller, and Jesse Owens. And the state has nurtured scores of the world’s most important companies and technological innovations, from Procter & Gamble and Goodyear to the inventions of the lightbulb, cash register, advanced space propulsion, and powered flight.

While Ohio remains the country’s seventh-largest state economy¹“SASUMMARY State annual summary statistics: personal income, GDP, consumer spending, price indexes, and employment,” US Bureau of Economic Analysis, accessed June 3, 2026.—and ranks among the world’s 25 largest²“GDP, current prices,” International Monetary Fund, 2026; “GDP by state,” US Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 9, 2026.—its broad base and Midwestern modesty can make it hard to choose where to lead. Can it forge ahead as a global leader among the most important economies of the next 50 years? Or will it lose competitive ground to bolder leaders that embrace the opportunity from tectonic shifts shaking the United States and global economy?

In the decade to come, the next era of growth in the United States may be captured by fewer than ten states. This report is about whether Ohio is one of them.

The choice is up to Ohioans. Competing and winning in an increasingly disrupted world requires the state rediscover its edge. That means understanding the competitive arenas where growth will most likely come from,³The race takes off in the next big arenas of competition, McKinsey Global Institute, March 26, 2026. identifying the sectors in which Ohio has a right to win, and placing strategic bets that can help its economy—and citizens—prosper. But taking this path also demands acting with a clear vision of Ohio’s ambitions, an understanding of the disruptive impact of AI (and the energy it demands), and the steps its public and private sectors can take to seize the opportunity.

The message is simple: Ohio can be one of the few US states to lead in the next economy if it chooses where to invest, builds the infrastructure to support that choice, and ensures the gains translate into broader prosperity. But without sharper choices and real collaboration, Ohio’s future is less certain.

While the state has the population and the economic base to compete, winning takes more: a stronger start-up ecosystem, faster inflows of private capital, a larger and better-skilled workforce, and public policy that serves business and residents together. This report lays out the challenges and opportunities of this period of change, especially as AI reshapes the nature of work, and the actions Ohio’s key stakeholders can consider to drive sustainable and inclusive economic growth and prosperity.

Ohio has no shortage of strengths, from its location and affordability to its breadth of industries and history of public–private partnerships. These give it a clear ability to win a greater share of next-generation growth. Yet there are also significant factors working against it, such as demographic trends, a dispersed urban footprint, unequal growth, and the outmigration of educated workers. Critical factors include the following.

Strengths

• Location. Ohio’s position in the heart of the Midwest gives it an enviable, built-in advantage: The state is within a one-day drive of 60 percent of the population of the United States and Canada⁴“Why Ohio,” JobsOhio, accessed June 2, 2026. and has the fifth-largest interstate system in the country.⁵ODOT facts book 2025, Ohio Department of Transportation, 2025.
• Affordability. Ohio’s cost of doing business is below the US average and is the lowest among peer states, driven by below-average unit labor and energy costs.⁶Moody’s Analytics. It is also one of the most affordable states for citizens,⁷For more on cost of living in Ohio, see an overview from JobsOhio: “Quality of life,” JobsOhio, accessed June 2, 2026. ranking as the seventh lowest for cost of living in 2025, with prices roughly 7 percent below the national average.⁸Council for Community and Economic Research data; “Top states for business: 5. Ohio,” CNBC, July 10, 2025.

Strengths with headwinds

• Economic performance. Ohio is the seventh-largest US economy⁹“SAGDP1 State annual gross domestic product (GDP) summary,” US Bureau of Economic Analysis, updated April 9, 2026 and has engineered a substantial postrecession turnaround, accelerating annual real GDP growth from 0.4 percent (2000–10) to 1.8 percent (2010–24). Despite this momentum, Ohio’s overall economic growth still lags behind the 2.4 percent national average and is projected to underperform many peer states.¹⁰Moody’s Analytics.
• Education. The state’s education system boasts 272 postsecondary institutions, ranking sixth among all states, and it ranks eighth nationally with approximately 172,000 graduates each year.¹¹National Center for Education Statistics Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System data. But while some initiatives seek to retain and attract educated residents—such as FindYourOhio—the state’s outmigration of residents with a bachelor’s degree or higher remains above peer states (50 percent compared with 46 percent, respectively¹²US Census Bureau data. Peer states are defined as Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.), signaling an opportunity to strengthen Ohio’s position.

Opportunities for improvement

• Industry. Ohio’s manufacturing growth has lagged behind that of the state and of its service sectors. Manufacturing generates 14 percent of Ohio’s GDP as of 2025, down from 19 percent in 2005, and its share is expected to fall to 11 percent by 2050.¹³Moody’s Analytics. While the state’s economic diversification is cited as a positive factor behind its stellar credit rating, such relatively rapid shifts can stretch the ability of Ohio’s workforce to adapt, resulting in acute talent gaps in sectors including healthcare, skilled trades, and technology.¹⁴Ohio talent reports: Top in-demand jobs, OhioMeansJobs.com, April 2, 2026. The goal, then, is not to reverse diversification or restore the old manufacturing mix but to build on Ohio’s industrial base in higher-value, more-technology-intensive segments where manufacturing, software, energy, logistics, and research capabilities reinforce one another.
• Energy. Energy costs have been rising, especially for industrial energy: Ohio’s energy affordability dropped from 21st among states in March 2025 to 37th by March 2026 as the state’s industrial energy price per kilowatt-hour jumped 27 percent, the largest increase in the country.¹⁵“Table 5.6.A. Average price of electricity to ultimate customers by end-use sector,” US Energy Information Administration, March 2026.

Understanding Ohio’s strengths and challenges is the starting point for any decision about its economic path. The next step is to size the external disruptions ahead—above all, the new competitive arenas set to drive outsize global growth and the power of AI to reshape work.

The very nature of the global economy is changing, taking Ohio with it. Dynamic industries with high growth in revenue and market capitalization have emerged, such as the arenas of competition the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) first identified in 2024.¹⁶The next big arenas of competition, MGI, October 23, 2024. MGI’s 18 potential future arenas—spanning AI foundations, digitization, electrification, hard technology, and new biofrontiers—have outpaced other industries since 2022, growing roughly four times faster in market capitalization and ten times faster in revenue.¹⁷The race takes off in the next big arenas of competition, MGI, March 26, 2026. Looking ahead, these arenas could generate global revenue of $29 trillion to $48 trillion and profits of $2 trillion to $6 trillion by 2040. In GDP terms, that may represent 18 to 34 percent of total global economic growth.

Simultaneously, organizations worldwide are adopting AI in an effort to realize gains in efficiency and effectiveness, with recent advances in AI models that simulate human reasoning particularly likely to reshape workforces.¹⁸Agents, robots, and us: Skill partnerships in the age of AI, MGI, November 25, 2025. That growth is already visible: Recent MGI research finds that semiconductors, cloud services, and AI software have added roughly $500 billion in revenue and $11 trillion in market capitalization since 2022, underscoring how quickly infrastructure and investments are shifting toward AI-enabled growth.¹⁹The race takes off in the next big arenas of competition, MGI, March 26, 2026.

Emerging growth arenas disrupting Ohio’s economy

One choice Ohio must make is how to position itself on the economic playing field in the coming decades. Playing for a general resurgence of traditional manufacturing is unlikely to be enough. Ohio can improve its odds by investing in high-growth advanced-manufacturing sectors that are expected to make up the lion’s share of future economic growth in areas where its existing production base, supplier networks, research assets, investment intensity, and operating costs create a practical advantage. These opportunities come at a time of national need: MGI research finds that resolving the country’s most critical supply chain exposures will likely require targeted new investment, not just a fuller use of existing factory capacity.²⁰Ramping up manufacturing in America?, MGI, May 21, 2026.

The exhibits that follow bring this to life around four considerations: where Ohio is advantaged, where momentum is shifting, which workforce segments face the fastest AI-driven change, and what leaders should prioritize first.

In aggregate, the manufacturing sector was a slight drag on Ohio’s economy from 2004 to 2024, making a 0.5 percent negative contribution to GDP growth, while growth from finance and insurance accounted for 19.5 percent of GDP growth and real estate rental and leasing represented 16.5 percent (Exhibit 1).²¹Moody’s Analytics. Ohio’s real GDP reached its lowest level in this period in 2009 amid the Great Recession. From 2004 to 2009, the manufacturing sector saw the largest GDP decline in Ohio of roughly $20 billion. Since 2010, Ohio’s GDP in manufacturing has grown by $19 billion, though still outpaced over the same time period by several other sectors such as finance and insurance and professional, scientific, and technical services. Nationally, from 2004 to 2024, manufacturing accounted for 6.6 percent of growth; finance and insurance 5.9 percent, and real estate rental and leasing 16.1 percent. Aggregate trends in manufacturing, however, fail to reflect underlying dynamism in the sector as Ohio transitions to more advanced manufacturing in specific sectors. Since 2004, Ohio’s output in steel products and basic chemicals has grown at annual rates exceeding 3 percent, and since 2010, battery manufacturing in the state has added roughly 2,700 jobs.²²Moody’s Analytics and Lightcast data as of February 27, 2026.

So, which of these arenas could drive transformative economic change in Ohio? The state has an existing presence in virtually all 18 identified by MGI and attracts more than 5 percent of national private equity and venture capital in two of them: e-commerce and electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing, where Ohio ranks as the third- and fourth-most-attractive US state for investment, respectively (Exhibit 2). These assets exist across Ohio and reflect assets that do not sit neatly in one metro, such as Cleveland’s healthcare and bioscience cluster; Dayton’s aerospace and defense ecosystem; Cincinnati’s corporate and commercialization base; Toledo’s glass and automotive supply chain; Akron’s polymer and advanced-materials capabilities; and Appalachian Ohio’s role in energy, manufacturing, and logistics.

The potential from AI and the impact on Ohio’s workforce

The same forces shaping high-growth arenas are already reshaping Ohio’s workforce. AI holds potentially revolutionary promise across everything from improving quality of life for individuals to increasing productivity and efficiency for organizations,²³Niklas Berglind, Ankit Fadia, and Tom Isherwood, “The potential value of AI—and how governments could look to capture it,” McKinsey, July 25, 2022. and MGI research suggests the impact of technological change, including AI and robotics, on the nature of work will likely be profound: Nationally, 57 percent of current work hours performed by humans could, in theory, be automated by existing technologies—although human work will remain essential, especially tasks requiring social and emotional capabilities.²⁴Agents, robots, and us: Skill partnerships in the age of AI, MGI, November 25, 2025. In short, work will become a partnership among people, agents, and robots.

Ohio’s exposure is close to the US average, which means this rapid evolution demands stakeholders in Ohio continue revamping the workforce ecosystem as the skills employers hire for evolve as technology and ways of working change. For workers and households, those shifts will show up in changes to job responsibilities, schedules, and wages, not just in hiring demand. Exhibit 3 shows a total of 58 percent of work hours in Ohio (one percentage point higher than the United States generally) could theoretically be automated through agentic technology (44 percent) and robotic technology (14 percent), with AI enabling or amplifying much of that shift.

While these shares are large, a portion of such activities will continue to require social and emotional skills largely beyond the reach of automation. Further, theoretical automation is not a forecast of job losses, in part because automation may not always be cost-effective²⁵For example, some executives report that computing costs of AI are currently higher than employee. For more, see Sasha Rogelberg, “‘The cost of compute is far beyond the costs of the employees’: Nvidia executive says right now AI is more expensive than paying human workers,” Yahoo Finance, April 28, 2026. and because increasingly complex tasks will continue to require human inputs and interventions. History suggests new challenges are addressed by new jobs when technology increases productivity.

After all, Ohioans did not choose to convert productivity gains resulting from the arrival of the sewing machine, tractor, and nitrogen fertilizer into abundant leisure time for an agricultural society. They instead used that time to invent powered flight and advanced space propulsion that brought humans to the moon—all unthinkable in the late 1800s. As we imagine the post-AI economy, we can be confident of one thing: It’s likely to profoundly change the way Ohioans work. This change has already begun. In the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s March 2026 Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations, just under three-quarters of Fourth District firms reported using AI in business processes during the prior six months, and 79 percent expected to do so in the next six months.²⁶Mitchell Isler and Brett Huettner, “SORCE insights: How Fourth District firms are using AI,” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, April 15, 2026. The following exhibits about AI emphasize how roles and skills evolve—not only how much activity could theoretically be automated.

Three implications for the future of work in Ohio

The adoption and scaling of AI and other technologies has three implications for the future of work²⁷Agents, robots, and us: Skill partnerships in the age of AI, MGI, November 25, 2025.: Some jobs will require workers deepen social and emotional skills that machines cannot replace (such as those vital to problem-solving and communication), some will require learning how to work productively alongside agents and robots, and others will need pathways to be built for those whose roles change most to move into the work Ohio employers need. The demands will differ by role (Exhibit 4).

As Ohio prepares its workers for the future, proactive actions that address how work is shifting will likely be critical. For people-first roles, accelerating work-based learning during training can help entry-level workers gain valuable skills and employer connections. In “collaboration” roles, in which humans are expected to increasingly partner with agents and robots, opportunities to learn new skills and ways to work with technology can help workers become disruptors rather than being disrupted. And for roles with the highest automation potential, the power of AI could be used to help guide workers who need to transition to new opportunities (Exhibit 5).

Ohio cannot control the forces reshaping the world economy, but its leaders have more power than they may think over the state’s future. What’s required is strategic decisions about where, when, and how to invest, informed by an understanding of how sectors will grow and which present an opportunity for the state to lead and build competitive differentiation. Success requires action across four reinforcing fronts:

1. selecting and mobilizing around arenas where the state has a right to win
2. solidifying the foundation for accelerated economic growth
3. maximizing the potential and limiting the downsides of AI
4. prioritizing prosperity for all as a priority outcome

There are examples Ohio can learn from to create its own unique blueprint for success, especially the dynamics of growth and decline among global firms, sectors, and economies. One relevant lens is MGI’s work on productivity standouts, or the small group of firms that drive a disproportionate share of productivity growth. In the United States, 44 firms, 5 percent of the sample analyzed, generated 78 percent of positive productivity growth. These firms succeed by doing things differently, notably by making bold strategic moves, scaling productive businesses, shifting portfolios, and finding new ways to create value. Such progress benefits firms and workers alike because higher value per worker can fund faster wage growth, helping firms attract talent and support continued productivity gains.²⁸The power of one: How standout firms grow national productivity, MGI, May 6, 2025.

1. Select and mobilize around growth arenas Ohio has a right to win

Ohio has activity tied to all 18 growth arenas defined by MGI, as mentioned earlier. Exhibit 6 captures where the state stands across two dimensions. The x-axis shows the concentration of companies in and adjacent to an arena relative to the rest of the United States—that is, arenas where Ohio already has a degree of competitive advantage in terms of business activity. The y-axis shows how Ohio is trending in the output growth of these companies in its state borders relative to the national growth rate. Together, these dimensions give a view of the scale and momentum Ohio currently has in arenas which, combined with indicators such as investment and patents, can focus decision-makers on the biggest opportunities.

Used this way, the right to win becomes a decision rule: Sustain arenas with scale and momentum; invest where existing assets are underperforming; and advance selective bets only where anchor investments can pull suppliers, talent, research, and infrastructure behind them. These archetypes sort arenas by Ohio’s current specialization and momentum, not by long-term importance. Several of the state’s highest-stakes anchors, such as semiconductors and data centers, sit under “selective bets ” because momentum is still being built, not because they matter less. Exhibit 6 highlights where Ohio’s scale and momentum already support leadership—and where new investment may help change the state’s economic trajectory.

Where to play in a new economic era

To win in a landscape being reshaped by new technologies and industries, Ohio’s leaders have strategic decisions to make about where, when, and how to invest. Success depends on understanding which competitive arenas present the greatest opportunity for the state to build a durable advantage.

An analysis of Ohio’s position within these emerging growth arenas (as illustrated by Exhibit 6) reveals three distinct strategic paths, or archetypes, that could guide investment decisions.

• Sustaining momentum. In two arenas, Ohio already has a high degree of economic specialization²⁹As measured by a location quotient. The location quotient is calculated by dividing Ohio’s share of GDP in sectors including and adjacent to an arena of the future by the United States’s share of GDP in the same sectors. Values above one indicate above-average specialization, while values below one indicate below-average specialization; Moody’s Analytics. and recent growth—the goal here would be to press the advantage. These arenas are batteries and e-commerce, where Ohio leverages its powerful logistics and transportation infrastructure. Staying ahead of the curve in capturing the rapidly growing market requires existing businesses in the state to continue to invest and innovate. New companies and investments can strengthen Ohio’s regional specialization, creating a cluster effect that spurs further growth (see sidebar “Honda–LG battery plant in Fayette County”).

• Investing to avoid stagnation. These are arenas where Ohio has an established presence and talent base but has recently lagged behind the nation in output growth. Bold innovation and investment could help realize their potential and avoid falling behind. We are already seeing examples in future air mobility (for example, Joby Aviation recently acquired a second Ohio facility³⁰“Joby to expand manufacturing footprint with acquisition of second Ohio facility,” Joby, January 7, 2026.) and EVs (for example, Schaeffler invested $230 million in a new manufacturing facility³¹“Schaeffler announces new automotive manufacturing facility,” PR Newswire, February 26, 2024.), as well as space, industrial and consumer biotech, and modular construction (see sidebar “Anduril Arsenal-1 in Pickaway County”).

• Accelerating selective bets. In a few high-potential arenas, Ohio currently has lower specialization but has a chance to win by rallying around strong regional “anchor” investments that attract entire supply chains. Examples of industries where companies are building on existing momentum include semiconductors (for example, Intel’s $28 billion Ohio One semiconductor campus) (see sidebar, “Intel Ohio One in Licking County”) and cloud services (for example, Amazon Web Services has invested $10 billion to expand its data infrastructure in Ohio³²“Governor DeWine announces $10 billion investment plan from Amazon Web Services in Greater Ohio,” State of Ohio Office of the Governor, December 16, 2024.). These anchor investments should be treated as platforms for long-arc capacity building: The near-term measure is not only the announced dollar figure but whether Ohio converts each project into further, broader investments, supplier attraction, site readiness, workforce pipelines, and durable regional specialization.³³MGI’s analysis also strengthens the case for Ohio’s semiconductor and AI-infrastructure bets: Computers and electronics account for an outsize share of the most exposed US manufacturing imports, and replacing imports for some AI-infrastructure products would require domestic production to increase more than tenfold. See Ramping up manufacturing in America?, MGI, May 21, 2026.

2. Solidifying the foundation for accelerated economic growth

It takes more to drive Ohio’s next economy than simply identifying and prioritizing arenas of competition. Multiple factors will determine whether the state can attract, expand, and retain businesses, from the availability of affordable energy and housing to better health infrastructure, strong schools that underpin a skilled workforce, and a regulatory environment that fosters entrepreneurship.

Improving energy availability and affordability

For a long time, Ohio’s energy rates were considerably lower than the national average and relatively stable for more than a decade, making it a desirable destination for energy-intensive industries such as data centers. However, Ohio’s energy affordability dropped from 21st among states in March 2025 to 37th by March 2026 as the state’s industrial energy price per kilowatt-hour jumped 27 percent, the largest increase in the country.³⁴“Table 5.6.A. Average price of electricity to ultimate customers by end-use sector,” US Energy Information Administration, March 2026. Some price pressure reflects growth itself, because data centers, advanced manufacturing, and electrification increase demand. Harnessing the potential of AI will require Ohio to add reliable supply quickly enough to keep energy affordable for citizens and favorable for businesses, relative to state competitors.

That operating challenge is now visible in the market. The capacity auction in PJM, the regional transmission organization serving Ohio, saw clearing prices increase from roughly $29 per megawatt-day (MW-day) for the 2024–25 delivery year to $270 per MW-day for the 2025–26 delivery year, a roughly ninefold increase.³⁵Jared Anderson, “PJM power capacity auction clears at record high price of $269.92/MW-day for most of footprint,” S&P Global, July 30, 2024. The 2027–28 capacity auction, which cleared at $333 per MW-day, fell short of the regionwide reliability requirement for the first time in PJM history.³⁶2027/2028 base residual auction report, PJM, December 17, 2025; “PJM auction procures 134,479 MW of generation resources,” PJM, December 17, 2025; “PJM 2027-28 capacity auction (including FRR) does not procure enough capacity to reach established reliability requirement,” Energy Choice Matters, December 17, 2025.For Ohio, the implication is direct: Energy strategy must move beyond a low-cost advantage and become a coordinated supply, transmission, demand-management, and customer-protection agenda, especially because McKinsey analysis suggests global data center capacity needs for AI and non-AI workloads could almost triple by 2030, with AI capacity increasing about 3.5 times and accounting for roughly 70 percent of total capacity needs.³⁷“The cost of compute: A $7 trillion race to scale data centers,” McKinsey Quarterly, April 28, 2025.

Public and private stakeholders across Ohio have implemented multipronged initiatives to improve energy availability and affordability. For example, the state recently launched a $100 million Energy Opportunity Initiative to spur natural gas infrastructure, energy supply chain enhancements, and nuclear capacity development,³⁸“Governor DeWine, JobsOhio announce $100 million ‘Energy Opportunity Initiative,’” State of Ohio Office of the Governor, October 29, 2025. and state legislators enacted bills to promote in-state energy generation and infrastructure.³⁹Brian M. Chavez, “Senate passes historic energy policy incentivizing reliability, affordability and accountability for new power projects,” The Ohio Senate, April 30, 2025. Private projects to expand energy generation capacity include Guernsey Power Station’s 1.8 gigawatt (GW) power plant⁴⁰“GE-powered Guernsey Power Station delivers 1.8 GW of electricity to help coal-to-gas transition in Ohio,” GE Vernova, June 7, 2023. and Meta’s partnership with Vistra, TerraPower, and Oklo to expand nuclear production, grid capabilities, and affordability.⁴¹“Meta announces nuclear energy projects, unlocking up to 6.6 GW to power American leadership in AI innovation,” Meta, January 9, 2026. This investment aims to support Meta’s data center operations while contributing to 1.2 GW in new energy generation.

Data centers are now central to regional economic strategy. When sited well and with appropriate guardrails in place, they do more than consume power: They can spur new generation, speed grid modernization, and build digital infrastructure that lifts industrial productivity.⁴²“The data center balance: How US states can navigate the opportunities and challenges,” McKinsey, August 8, 2025. But they force hard trade-offs, such as securing reliable power (including grid upgrades), keeping grid costs from shifting onto other ratepayers, and resolving local environmental and zoning concerns (for example, by using closed-loop cooling). In this context, data center development is less of an issue of simple land, water, and electricity use and more of a strategic challenge to build a sustainable, mutually beneficial model for AI-era growth.

A notable illustration of this balancing act is the evolving regulatory landscape, such as the July 2025 Public Utilities Commission of Ohio directive for AEP Ohio to establish a data-center-specific tariff.⁴³“PUCO orders AEP Ohio to create data center specific tariff,” Public Utilities Commission, July 9, 2025. This mechanism aims to align the infrastructure costs of rapid capacity growth directly with the new demand, safeguarding other customers from cost reallocation. As these dynamics play out nationwide—shifting tax incentives, local zoning reviews, tougher grid-integration rules—long-term success for operators and regions will hinge on clear cost-allocation models, proactive capacity planning, and genuine community engagement.

Surging general energy demand driven by digitalization, advanced-manufacturing growth, and electrification is intensifying pressure for infrastructure modernization and the use of alternative energy sources.⁴⁴Energy competitiveness study: Fueling Ohio’s future, Ohio Business Roundtable, February 26, 2025. Georgia offers one example, though its market context differs from Ohio’s: It responded to such demands by building the United States’ first new nuclear reactors in three decades—a joint state and federal initiative that provides approximately 17,500,000 megawatt-hours of clean energy per year.⁴⁵“Vogtle,” US Department of Energy, as of March 2019. Overall plant production increased from 19.5 terawatt-hours in 2022 to 37.1 terawatt-hours in 2025 after units 3 and 4 came online. Ohio’s nuclear power and natural gas capabilities place it in a strong position to relieve its energy and affordability challenges, but finding sustainable solutions to power residences and businesses may require targeted investments and the continuing creation of strategic energy initiatives.

Driving innovation by supporting entrepreneurship

Remaining competitive demands that the state cultivate a strong innovation ecosystem by accelerating the creation of businesses, attracting venture capital funding, encouraging the development of entrepreneurial clusters, supporting underrepresented business owners, and playing to the state’s industry strengths.

Ohio’s technology and innovation ranking was sixth in 2025, up from 12th a year earlier.⁴⁶“Ohio ranks #5 in CNBC ‘Top States for Business’ report,” JobsOhio, July 10, 2025. The state’s Innovation Hub programs capitalize on foundational developments and nationally ranked academic R&D in engineering and life sciences and patent filings to create a lasting talent pipeline to fuel growth and new product developments.⁴⁷“Innovation Hubs,” Ohio Department of Development, accessed June 2, 2026. Successful innovation hubs generate cross-sector investments while creating sustainable interconnected communities.⁴⁸“Building innovation ecosystems: Accelerating tech hub growth,” McKinsey, February 28, 2023. For example, Minnesota’s position as a leading global health technology cluster is driven by initiatives such as MedTech Hub 3.0, the central role of the University of Minnesota as an academic and research institution, and deep involvement of public and private sectors to bolster growth.⁴⁹“U of M celebrates selection of Minnesota MedTech 3.0 as federal Tech Hub,” University of Minnesota, October 23, 2023.

Ohio can leverage its existing strengths to capture venture capital and private equity growth as well as support and attract the entrepreneurial talent needed to drive business success. Ohio’s current hub map also helps make the strategy statewide. Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus anchor the state’s original innovation districts; newer hubs in Dayton, Northwest Ohio, Akron, Youngstown, Athens, and Piketon connect aerospace and defense, glass, polymers, advanced manufacturing, and energy-related strengths to distinct regional economies. Akron shows how this model can work in practice. The Akron Sustainable Polymers Tech Hub builds on the region’s century-long strength in rubber and polymers, bringing together industry, the Greater Akron Chamber, the University of Akron, federal investment, and entrepreneurial infrastructure such as the Bounce Innovation Hub. Selected for tech hub investment by the US Economic Development Administration in 2023 and awarded about $51 million in 2024, the hub is projected to support more than 4,000 jobs and roughly $5 billion in regional economic impact.⁵⁰“Polymer industry cluster selected for $51 million federal Sustainable Polymers Tech Hub phase 2 investment,” Greater Akron Chamber, July 2, 2024.

Making Ohio easier to build businesses in

A competitive foundation is also administrative. Ohio already starts from a position of strength: CNBC ranked Ohio fifth in its 2025 ranking of the top states for business, as well as first for infrastructure and second for cost of doing business.⁵¹Scott Cohn, “America’s top states for business 2025: The full rankings,” CNBC, July 20, 2025. Yet certain measures of investment in the state fall outside thresholds of the top five. Specifically, Ohio ranks eighth among states in private nonresidential construction and 16th in R&D spending.⁵²Normalized by state GDP. Nonresidential construction put in place excludes communication, power, and railroad investment and is for 2024 and sourced from Moody’s Analytics. R&D data includes R&D performed by federal agencies, businesses, universities, other nonprofit organizations, federally funded R&D centers, and state agencies is for 2022 and is sourced from the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics; “Research and development (R&D) as a percentage of gross domestic product,” National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics, April 2025. To accelerate growth through investment, Ohio’s government can be a source of competitive advantage.

Ohio can build on existing digital platforms—such as the Ohio Business Gateway, which helps businesses complete government tasks, submit transactions, and make payments across state agencies,⁵³“About us,” Ohio Business Gateway, accessed June 2, 2026. and the LPI eLicense Portal for licensing, permitting, and inspections⁵⁴“Ohio Board of Building Standards launches new eLicense Portal to streamline certification process,” Ohio Department of Commerce, August 4, 2025.—to make state and local government faster, more transparent, and easier to navigate. The goal should be a visible reduction in friction: one digital front door; plain-language requirements; predictable service-level commitments; and faster decisions across high-volume interactions such as construction permits, business formation and licensing, workforce credentials, tax and incentive administration, and benefits eligibility. Done well, AI and digitalization can turn administrative efficiency into another reason builders, employers, entrepreneurs, and residents choose Ohio.

3. Maximizing the potential and limiting the downsides of AI

While the full impact of AI on the way we work continues to evolve, its disruptive potential already seems clear. As noted earlier, 58 percent of Ohio residents’ work hours in 2024 could theoretically be automated with existing agentic AI and robotic technology, and about 2.4 million Ohioans are employed in roles that could see large-scale changes in activities.⁵⁵As measured by workers in jobs where most activities could theoretically be performed by current technology. See the disruption grouping of roles in Exhibit 4. Workers and households are not passive inputs in that transition. They decide whether training is feasible; whether a job move is worth the risk; and whether wages, benefits, childcare, healthcare, and geographic access make participation possible. That is why the AI response must connect directly to the inclusion, health, housing, and education agenda that follows.

Work in the future increasingly looks like it will be a collaboration among humans, agents, and robots—all powered by AI. Human skills will endure, although they will be applied differently. And the economic impact on individuals, companies, and countries will likely be profound. Tackling the task of preparing workers for an AI future must take place at all levels, including states. Ohio has an opportunity to proactively shape the extent to which the state’s workforce is best prepared.

Helping Ohio’s workforce become future-ready

Talent is the lifeblood of a vibrant and growing economy. Ohio’s workforce agenda starts with workers and households who can afford to stay; who can move for opportunity; who can take time for training; and who are excluded by care, health, housing, or transportation barriers. Employer demand still matters, but the state will meet those needs only through measures that improve job quality and make participation realistic for more Ohioans. The state’s labor force participation rate of roughly 62 percent ranks 29th nationally,⁵⁶Calculated at 62.2 percent (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2026 using US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. short of the about 66 percent that would put Ohio among the top ten.

The challenge is compounded by demographics. The state’s population is aging (Ohio ranks 20th among states in the share of its population over age 65),⁵⁷”Population distribution by age,” KFF, accessed June 5, 2026. with diminishing birthrates and shifting sectors transforming the workforce. Closing the participation gap therefore depends both on attracting working-age adults from out of state and on activating residents already here. Encouragingly, Ohio has momentum: Its net domestic migration turned positive from 2024 to 2025, reversing the trend of net domestic outflows in prior years.⁵⁸Moody’s Analytics.

A clear benchmark can sharpen this agenda. A JobsOhio-supported Economic Innovation Group analysis ranked Ohio 14th on its Workforce Competitiveness Index, behind Indiana at fourth and Michigan at eighth.⁵⁹“Silicon heartland: The evolution of Ohio’s high-tech workforce,” Economic Innovation Group, August 25, 2025. Ohio’s advantage is that the same levers that close that gap—such as graduate retention, high-tech credentialing, employer-led training, and affordable places for skilled workers to live—may also help the state become more competitive across the 18 competitive arenas.

The state has already made concerted efforts to increase labor force participation rates and prepare for upcoming workforce disruptions. The JobsOhio Relocation Incentive provides financial incentives to offset the costs of recruitment and relocation for out-of-state STEM and technical workers in ten high-demand and undersupplied areas.⁶⁰“JobsOhio relocation incentive,” JobsOhio, accessed June 2, 2026. And in November 2025, JobsOhio launched AI Ready Ohio in partnership with several companies and Ohio universities—among the country’s first state-led AI workforce certification programs—offering AI certifications for workers, professionals, and executives, with statewide expansion now underway.⁶¹“‘AI Ready Ohio’ expands to accelerate AI education and training statewide,” PR Newswire, May 26, 2026. The TechCred program accelerates digital capacity building through structured employer reimbursements for eligible tech credentialing, and Ohio continues to leverage the Industry Sector Partnership Grant Program to enhance educational and business partnerships.⁶²“Program guidelines,” TechCred, accessed June 2, 2026; “New round of industry sector partnership grant funding now available available,” Ohio Department of Development, February 3, 2026.

Clustering also improves a region’s odds of long-term economic success when policies, education, and infrastructure join to drive workforce development.⁶³“Economic clustering 101,” Center of Climate and Energy Solutions, May 2025. For example, the Indiana Economic Development Corporation is pursuing LEAP, which seeks to align workforce needs with upcoming STEM talent demands.⁶⁴“LEAP,” Indiana Economic Development Corporation, accessed June 2, 2026. Workforce participation expansion and stronger private employer investment efforts can strengthen Ohio’s existing initiatives, including their innovation hubs.

These efforts show how Ohio could continue to attract workers to the state, retain graduates, and ensure workers have real agency to learn the skills and attain good jobs increasingly required in the AI era.

A significant structural barrier for many is the lack of affordable and accessible childcare. Ohio ranks 40th among states in childcare access, affordability, and policy in 2026.⁶⁵2026 national state of childcare report, Beverly Research, May 2026. While Ohio’s childcare workforce was scored above the national state average, the dimensions of affordability, supply, family strain, and policy support were all below the national state average. A study by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation revealed that Ohio’s economy loses an estimated $5.5 billion annually due to childcare-related issues. This figure includes a $1.5 billion loss in tax revenue and costs associated with workforce disruption.⁶⁶Untapped potential in OH: How childcare impacts Ohio’s workforce productivity and the state’s economy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation, Ohio Chamber of Commerce, and Groundwork Ohio, 2025. The childcare gap is a major driver of parents leaving the workforce, with 70 percent of parents of young children reporting they have missed work or class due to childcare issues and 33 percent of those experiencing employment disruptions in the past year leaving their jobs entirely as a result.⁶⁷The $5.5 billion figure comprises about $4.0 billion in childcare-related employee turnover and absenteeism and $1.5 billion in lost tax revenue; Untapped potential in OH: How childcare impacts Ohio’s workforce productivity and the state’s economy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation, Ohio Chamber of Commerce, and Groundwork Ohio, 2025. This burdens households and shrinks Ohio’s available workforce. Making childcare more accessible and affordable is among the most concrete ways to move the state toward top ten labor force participation nationally.

Expanding access to education and labor market alignment

Education is a vehicle for economic prosperity. Indeed, about 172,000 students graduate annually from Ohio’s 272 higher education institutions, and the state ranks sixth nationally in the number of such institutions.⁶⁸Based on National Center for Education Statistics Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System data. Yet its higher education outcomes rank only 41st nationally,⁶⁹“Overview of Ohio,” U.S. News, accessed June 2, 2026. with lower college completion rates among Black and Hispanic students compared with White students,⁷⁰“Post-secondary readiness and outcomes” in 2026 Ohio education by the numbers, Thomas B. Fordham Institute, accessed June 2, 2026. and declining higher education enrollment.⁷¹“Total headcount enrollment by institution and by campus (2014-2023),” Ohio Department of Higher Education, July 31, 2024. The state’s pre-K–12 outcomes are more positive, ranking 15th nationally.⁷²“Overview of Ohio,” U.S. News, accessed June 2, 2026. Yet Ohio struggles here as well, with significant gaps in learning outcomes by race and region, including a learning outcomes gap of about 30 percentage points between White and Black third-grade students⁷³“Post-secondary readiness and outcomes” in 2026 Ohio education by the numbers, Thomas B. Fordham Institute, accessed June 2, 2026. and limited access to early education, ranking 35th for access for four-year-olds and 23rd for three-year-olds.⁷⁴“Ohio” in The state of preschool 2024, National Institute for Early Education Research, 2025.

Ohio has sought to capitalize on its relatively stronger pre-K–12 outcomes through retention efforts and continues to work to improve educational outcomes. The Ohio Department of Higher Education utilizes State Share of Instruction (SSI) to increase residents’ education affordability, access, and completion rates. SSI provides performance-based operating subsidies to decrease instructional expenditures for nearly 60 public colleges and universities.⁷⁵“State share of instruction,” Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission, December 2025; “Budget & financial overview,” Ohio Department of Higher Education, accessed June 2, 2026. As another example, neighboring Michigan has enacted Michigan Reconnect, which matches adults older than 25 who do not have an undergraduate degree with employers to create lasting relationships and improve educational outcomes. Ohio has long recognized the economic power of education, and it can continue to maintain an active role in attainment through multiparty coordination that addresses barriers and allocation challenges.

4. Prioritizing prosperity for all as a priority outcome

A state may grow or slow, but even worse is growing slowly while the gains reach only a few. Beyond winning the new arenas and guiding its workforce through the age of AI, Ohio’s central aim must be that every resident shares in the growth ahead. By doing so, Ohio can not only broaden and deepen the prosperity of its citizens but also continue to drive the state’s attractiveness as a place for people to live and companies to invest. Inclusion is therefore not a separate social objective after growth is achieved; it is a condition for whether the growth strategy succeeds at scale, because housing, health, childcare, education, and regional access determine whether all people can participate in the sectors Ohio is trying to grow.

Driving housing affordability

In addition to childcare and education, housing presents a significant infrastructure challenge for Ohio. The median house sale price in Ohio is 34 percent below that of the United States,⁷⁶Moody’s Analytics as of the fourth quarter of 2026. and single-family homes sell for roughly half the national median in the Akron and Cleveland metros, an increasingly powerful draw for talent and remote workers. But Ohio’s population growth exceeds the US average in some of its metropolitan areas (for example, in Columbus, which grew 11 percent from 2014 to 2024, compared with average US population growth of 6 percent⁷⁷Kristie Wilder, “U.S. population grows at fastest pace in more than two decades,” US Census Bureau, December 19, 2024.), resulting in limited housing availability and reduced affordability, especially for the lowest-income renters and households on fixed incomes.⁷⁸The gap: A shortage of affordable homes, National Low Income Housing Coalition, March 2026. Ohio ranks 26th nationally for affordable housing for the most vulnerable populations, with 37 affordable and available rentals per 100 extremely low-income renter households.⁷⁹Extremely low-income renters are defined as households earning 0 to 30 percent of area median income; The gap: A shortage of affordable homes, National Low Income Housing Coalition, March 2026. In fact, 73 percent of extremely low-income households spend more than half of their income on rent, up from 66 percent five years ago.⁸⁰The gap: A shortage of affordable homes, National Low Income Housing Coalition, March 2026; The gap: A shortage of affordable homes, National Low Income Housing Coalition, March 2021. Affordable housing is both a resident need and a competitive asset; getting it right supports prosperity for all Ohio residents while strengthening Ohio’s draw for talent and businesses.

The Ohio Housing Trust Fund empowers nonprofits and private businesses seeking funding to aid vulnerable populations and provides essential support and funding to maintain safe housing for Ohio residents, with 75 percent allocated to those earning 50 percent or less of the area’s median earnings.⁸¹“Ohio Housing Trust Fund,” Coalition on Homelessness and Housing in Ohio, accessed June 2, 2026. The state and its peers have also been actively creating and maintaining programs to address housing needs. Minnesota, for example, has implemented state-specific zoning to encourage development, such as reducing parking requirements to decrease the costs of building multifamily homes.⁸²“Comprehensive zoning reform in Minneapolis, MN,” Bipartisan Policy Center, October 3, 2023.

Yet additional proactive approaches may be required in Ohio to both strengthen support for homeowners and renters—through tools such as eviction prevention and home repair assistance that keep existing units in service—and increase the housing supply, especially by expediting the permit process, unlocking underutilized land and property, and rehabilitating the existing housing stock. Modernizing outdated building codes is a prerequisite: Columbus’s 2024 zoning overhaul, its first comprehensive update in decades, and Austin’s permit reform, which halved initial site plan review times, show what’s possible.⁸³Cole Behrens, “Columbus approves sweeping zoning changes, increasing height limits in parts of city,” Columbus Dispatch, July 29, 2024; “Accelerating permitting: Lessons from the city of Austin,” McKinsey, May 5, 2026. The capacity gap presents an opportunity that Ohio’s private and public entities can utilize.

Improving healthcare outcomes

Ohio is a hub for premier healthcare systems, research, and innovation, particularly in Northeast Ohio, where Cleveland Clinic, University Hospitals, MetroHealth, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland State University, and state and JobsOhio partners formed the Cleveland Innovation District. To date and statewide, however, that has not fully translated into its residents being healthier. Ohio ranks 39th nationally for health outcomes,⁸⁴“Summary of Ohio,” America’s Health Rankings, accessed June 2, 2026. has a substantial chronic-disease burden, and spends more on healthcare relative to most other states.⁸⁵“2026 health value dashboard,” Health Policy Institute of Ohio, April 2026. More than two in three (69 percent) Ohioans experienced at least one healthcare affordability burden in the past year, and 80 percent worry about affording healthcare in the future.⁸⁶“Consumer Healthcare Experience State Survey: Ohio,” Healthcare Value Hub, 2024. When care is unaffordable, people defer treatment, miss work, and avoid job moves or training opportunities, making health affordability a practical constraint on workforce participation and AI-era mobility.⁸⁷“Consumer Healthcare Experience State Survey: Ohio,” Healthcare Value Hub, 2024. In addition, accessibility challenges contribute to higher uninsured rates and unhealthier populations in rural Ohio.⁸⁸“Data snapshot: Health in rural and Appalachian Ohio,” Health Policy Institute of Ohio, August 2024. Medicaid coverage continues to be critical for healthcare access among rural, low-income, and aging residents across Ohio, and there remains much work to be done to ensure equitable access to services, especially for children and young adults.

On the spending side, the Federal Rural Health Transformation (RHT) Program administered by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services is designed to offset some (though not all) Medicaid spending reductions affecting rural communities and provide better rural healthcare outcomes.⁸⁹“Ohio receives federal funding through the Rural Health Transformation Program,” Groundwork Ohio, January 13, 2026; “ Rural Health Transformation Program,” Ohio Department of Health, accessed June 2, 2026. In 2026, Ohio will receive $202 million in RHT programmatic funding.⁹⁰“HPIO releases explainer on Ohio’s Rural Health Transformation Program award,” Health Policy Institute of Ohio, January 9, 2026. One peer example in relation to costs is Indiana’s 2025 legislation tying nonprofit hospital tax status to statewide average pricing benchmarks, alongside expanded price transparency and direct-to-employer plan requirements.⁹¹Carson Gerber, “New Indiana law aims to lower hospital charges,” Indiana Economic Digest, May 19, 2025.

Further progress means shifting from treating illness to building health—more community-based prevention; integrated clinical and social supports; and targeted help for rural residents, low-income families, children, and older adults. This is an economic strategy as much as a health strategy: Healthier residents can participate more fully in the workforce, learn more effectively, and raise productivity.

Focusing on underserved regions and populations

Closing the gap between underserved communities and the rest of the state must be an explicit goal of Ohio’s growth strategy. The McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility finds that improving outcomes and decreasing disparities is an imperative given that in many Ohio counties residents in lower-opportunity neighborhoods—disproportionately Black and Latino households—trail their county peers by 30 to 50 percent on measures such as housing, healthcare, and educational opportunities.⁹²“Mapping the road to prosperity and parity for Black and Latino residents across America,” McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility, March 15, 2024.

Encouragingly, the earnings gap between those with and without college degrees in Ohio has been narrowing. Wages for high school graduates older than 25 without college training increased by about 55 percent from 2014 to 2024, outpacing the rate of inflation, and while those with a bachelor’s degree or higher earn about 1.6 times more than high school graduates without, that is down from a gap of roughly 2.0 times in 2014.⁹³U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers data and US Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators data as of February 10, 2026. Generally, there are signs of increased opportunities for those without a college degree.

Yet 12.7 percent of people in Ohio live in poverty,⁹⁴“U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Ohio,” US Census Bureau, July 1, 2025. and there remain significant differences in earnings by race and ethnicity. Despite improvement in the past decade, Black and Hispanic Ohio residents in 2024 earned 67 percent and 76 percent, respectively, of White workers’ earnings on average, reflecting differences in occupation, industry, geography, and access to opportunity.⁹⁵US Census Quarterly Workforce Indicators data as of June 4, 2026. White earnings are calculated for those identifying as White and not Hispanic. “QWI explorer,” US Census Bureau, accessed June 2, 2026. Growth has also been distributed unevenly across Ohio. For example, while GDP in the Columbus region increased by 33 percent since 2014, Cincinnati’s GDP grew by 25 percent, and Cleveland’s output rose by 12 percent.⁹⁶Moody’s Analytics data as of June 4, 2026. Discrepancies also appear across rural and urban lines, with more rural areas such as Ohio’s Southeastern region recently facing unemployment rates roughly two percentage points above the state average.⁹⁷Lightcast data as of June 4, 2026, examining unemployment rates for 2025.

This is why the economic strategy should name and mobilize regional assets directly. Columbus can be a growth engine without becoming the whole story; Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dayton, Toledo, Akron, the Mahoning Valley, and rural and Appalachian communities each bring assets that make the statewide strategy more credible and more resilient. In particular, research by the McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility finds taking a differentiated approach to rural economic development across the diversity of rural communities could lead to sustained economic growth.⁹⁸“Small towns, massive opportunity: Unlocking rural America’s potential,” McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility, August 4, 2025. This place-based lens should include transition stories in the Mahoning Valley and Youngstown, where advanced-manufacturing and energy-related investments can help industrial communities move from legacy concentration to new capability. It should also include older industrial neighborhoods in Toledo and Dayton, where access to training, transit, childcare, and quality jobs will determine whether regional assets translate into household mobility.

The state has deployed policies and strategies to narrow opportunity gaps within underserved regions and populations. Ohio legislators enacted a Regional Partnerships Program to improve prenatal-to-workforce outcomes,⁹⁹“Regional Education Partnerships,” Ohio Department of Education & Workforce, updated April 14, 2026. aiming to improve upward mobility in communities with increased poverty levels and reduced educational attainment rates. State housing initiatives seek to address housing shortages that hinder workforce participation or hiring—for example, the Residential Economic Development District Program encourages regional coordination to align public grants and private incentives to create workforce housing near local labor markets.

The foundation of Ohio’s economic competitiveness strategy hinges on unlocking educational excellence, workforce participation, increased housing opportunities, and health equity. The state’s long-term economic success depends on it. By tracking statewide prosperity and mobility metrics, coordinating statewide standards with regional flexibility, and embedding long-term affordability, Ohio can drive its business development and realize its growth potential.

Ohio has real advantages, from an at-scale economy that is the seventh largest in the nation to a deep industrial base, a strong energy and logistics platform, leading research institutions, and a central location within a day’s drive of most of the country. These are foundations to build on. But the next era will not reward broad capability alone. It will reward the states that make deliberate choices in selecting the arenas where they have a genuine right to win, concentrating investment behind those choices, and ensuring the gains reach residents across every region. The work ahead is less about reinvention and more about focus, directing Ohio’s existing strengths toward the sectors, infrastructure, and workforce capabilities that will define competitive advantage over the next decade.

These ambitions can be made concrete through a set of goals to which the state holds itself accountable: pursuing top five growth among US states, reversing demographic headwinds into durable population gains, and achieving prosperity visible in real household progress across every region and demographic group, with workforce participation in the national top ten. Behind each headline goal sit the specific measures that tell Ohio whether the strategy is working, including the following:

• growth: top five real GDP growth nationally, rising share of GDP from arena-aligned sectors, private nonresidential construction and R&D spending moving into the top five, and private-capital inflows per capita climbing toward peer benchmarks
• people: sustained, positive net domestic migration; workforce participation in the national top ten; and increased retention of in-state college graduates and accelerated in-migration of skilled workers to Ohio
• capability: AI and advanced-skill credentials issued per capita, new firm formation in priority arenas, permitting and licensing decision times benchmarked to leading states, and venture and growth capital deployed into Ohio-based companies
• prosperity: real median household income growth across every region, narrowing urban–rural and racial earnings gaps, reductions in childcare and housing-cost burdens, and movement up the national health outcomes rankings

An action plan for Ohio

The following agenda translates the report’s four pillars into a practical leadership plan. It is intentionally selective; the point is not to do everything but to align agencies, regions, employers, educators, and civic partners around the actions most likely to change Ohio’s trajectory.

Table

Only about half of US states have the critical mass of population and economic size enabling them to aspire to truly seize economic advantage. By making the right decisions and acting quickly, Ohio could break free of its peers and lead again. The task is not incremental improvement; it is to place concentrated bets, remove friction, build fast enough, and ensure every region can participate. If Ohio acts with that level of ambition, it can move from a state with momentum to a standard bearer for the next economy.