The new case for brain health: Scaling interventions for health and economic growth

The core disease burden analysis draws on the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data suite to estimate the primary and associated disease burden of all mental health conditions. A further evidence review was conducted to identify estimates of the additional risk of developing non-mental-health, noncommunicable conditions for those with a prior mental health condition, covering all relevant condition pairs.

A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify relevant, proven, and scalable interventions for the included mental health conditions. Data were extracted from approximately 100 individual studies to estimate the effectiveness and current adoption rates of more than 100 condition intervention pairs.

To estimate the impact of disease burden reduction, health interventions were modeled sequentially on a year-over-year basis to quantify the potential reduction in mental health and noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden over time, assuming a peak adoption rate of 90 percent, in line with The Kennedy Forum’s Alignment for Progress. Note that this aspirational assumption is meant to illustrate the art of the possible for scaling interventions over a 25-year time frame, assuming a gradual growth in adoption between 2025 and 2050.

The potential economic impact on GDP is estimated across multiple levers, including reductions in premature deaths, disability, and informal caregiver needs, as well as improvements in productivity and future earnings for children. These factors affect the size of the labor force and relative productivity stemming from the estimated mental health and NCD burden reduction.

Finally, a high-level estimate of implementation costs and the subsequent economic return is calculated at a global level, using estimates for cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted, adjusted for country income archetype and intervention type.

Please see the technical appendix for more details on the methodology, data sources, and limitations.

Brain health: Encompasses mental, neurological, and substance use disorders, including the promotion of healthy brain function and the prevention and treatment of brain health conditions to help individuals thrive

Disease burden: The impact of a disease or health condition, combining both morbidity and premature mortality

Primary burden: The direct disease burden of a specific brain health condition

Associated noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden: The portion of NCD burden that encompasses the effects of preexisting brain health conditions, which increase the likelihood and severity of other NCDs